Track Record

The Prediction Scorecard.

Every Big Picture column makes one dated, falsifiable call. We keep score in the open. A take you can't be wrong about isn't a take.

The through-line. These calls cluster where our coverage does: what AI is doing to marketing budgets, the jobs that survive on a marketing team, and whether the platforms will ever let you measure any of it. Each call below is dated and falsifiable, so you can hold us to it.

Open calls

Open check by Jun 30, 2027

By June 30, 2027, at least one major martech platform will publicly offer a local or open-weight processing tier, named as a way to cut customer AI costs rather than as a privacy feature.

Made Aug 16, 2026 in Your AI Bill Is Full of Work a Laptop Can Now Do
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

When IAB next measures the distance between what ad executives believe Gen Z and Millennial consumers feel about AI advertising and what those consumers report, the gap will be wider than the 37 points recorded in its 2026 study.

Made Aug 17, 2026 in Advertisers Think 82% Like Their AI Ads. The Real Number Is 45%.
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

By December 31, 2027, a majority of B2B companies with 50 or more employees will give their proprietary AI playbook and knowledge base a named owner and a budget line.

Made Jul 29, 2026 in The Capture Economy: Your Team's Judgment Is the Raw Material AI Is Really After
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

By the end of 2027, the marketing teams that can show a real return on AI will overwhelmingly be the ones who spent it on platform-run advertising, not on in-house agents, and in-house agent budgets will be the first line CFOs cut.

Made Jul 15, 2026 in Rent the Algorithm. Own the Audience.
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

No major AI platform (Google, Microsoft, or OpenAI) will expose, inside its own analytics products, whether a brand's presence in an AI answer was paid or earned, before the end of 2027.

Made Jul 23, 2026 in 24% of Search Budgets Now Chase an AI-Search Score the Vendors Can't Pin Down.
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

When the American Marketing Association publishes its 2027 State of Marketing Careers Report, creator and influencer-facing roles will again be the fastest-growing marketing job category, and no job title with 'AI' in its name will appear in its top three growth roles.

Made Aug 17, 2026 in The Fastest-Growing Marketing Job Is the One Marketers Respect Least
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

By the end of 2027, 'reviews and validates AI-generated output' will be an explicit, named responsibility in the majority of senior marketing job descriptions, and a marketer who can't demonstrate that judgment won't be hireable at that level.

Made Jul 28, 2026 in 76% of Marketers Now Spend Their Week Checking the AI's Work. The Auditor Just Became the Marketer.
Open check by Dec 31, 2028

By the end of 2028, the companies that cut junior marketing roles hardest in 2025-2026 will face a visible senior-marketing-talent shortage: longer fill times and a wage premium for experienced marketers who trained before the ladder broke.

Made Jul 29, 2026 in Marketing's Experience Debt: Cut the Juniors Now, Pay for It in 2028